A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
